The mixed martial arts world finds itself in a state of bewilderment as UFC 324 approaches on January 24th at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. In what many consider one of the most surprising betting developments in recent memory, Liverpool's Paddy "The Baddy" Pimblett has opened as a significant favorite over former interim lightweight champion Justin Gaethje in their interim title bout that headlines the Paramount+ card.

Main Event: The Odds That Shocked the MMA World

Paddy Pimblett (23-3, 7-0 UFC) vs. Justin Gaethje (26-5, 9-5 UFC) For the Interim UFC Lightweight Championship

The betting landscape for UFC 324's main event has left seasoned analysts scratching their heads. DraftKings Sportsbook currently lists Pimblett as a -225 favorite, while the battle-tested Gaethje sits at +185 as the underdog. These odds represent a fascinating intersection of public perception, marketing appeal, and perhaps an underestimation of experience versus potential.

UFC commentator and analyst Laura Sanko perfectly encapsulated the MMA community's reaction when she needed reassurance that the odds were accurate. "It's not that I think Paddy should be some ginormous underdog, but that number being so far the other way does surprise me," Sanko noted, calling the situation "pretty crazy."

The Case for Pimblett

At 31 years old, Pimblett brings an undefeated UFC record and a submission-heavy skill set that has captivated audiences since his promotional debut. His seven-fight UFC winning streak showcases a fighter who has consistently found ways to win, often through his exceptional grappling and submission skills. The Liverpudlian's ability to secure takedowns and transition to submissions could prove problematic for Gaethje, whose defensive wrestling has shown vulnerabilities throughout his career.

Pimblett's youth advantage cannot be overlooked either. At six years younger than Gaethje, "The Baddy" represents a fighter still ascending toward his prime, while questions linger about how much the 37-year-old Gaethje has left in the tank after years of wars inside the octagon.

The betting odds suggest that the public sees something special in Pimblett's combination of skills, marketability, and momentum. His ability to finish fights through submission creates multiple pathways to victory against any opponent, including one as dangerous as Gaethje.

The Gaethje X-Factor

However, dismissing Justin Gaethje would be a grave mistake. Currently ranked No. 5 in the lightweight division compared to Pimblett's No. 7 ranking, Gaethje brings a level of experience and proven championship-level competition that Pimblett has yet to face.

Sanko highlighted this crucial element: "I just think Justin is so experienced, so violent. He brings an element that none of Paddy's past opponents has had." This experience factor cannot be quantified in betting odds but represents perhaps the most significant intangible in the fight.

Gaethje's legendary knockout power and pressure fighting style present unique challenges for Pimblett. "The Highlight" has consistently proven his ability to end fights with a single shot, and his relentless forward pressure could prevent Pimblett from implementing his grappling game plan effectively.

Tactical Considerations

The stylistic matchup presents fascinating tactical questions. Pimblett will likely look to close distance, secure takedowns, and utilize his superior ground game. His submission threat from various positions could create opportunities even if he finds himself in seemingly disadvantageous positions.

Gaethje's path to victory likely involves maintaining distance, utilizing his superior striking technique and power, and defending takedowns while landing significant strikes. His ability to punish takedown attempts with uppercuts and knees could prove decisive.

Sanko noted the compelling nature of the matchup: "There are times where I think there could be a lot of opportunities for Paddy to get a submission. That's what makes it a compelling fight. It is a real fight."

The Interim Title Stakes

This interim lightweight championship bout carries significant implications for the division's future. With the undisputed title situation remaining unclear, the winner positions themselves as the next logical challenger for championship unification. For Pimblett, victory would represent a meteoric rise to title contention despite facing criticism about his level of competition. For Gaethje, it would mark a return to interim championship status and another opportunity to capture undisputed gold.

What Makes This Card Special

UFC 324 represents more than just another fight card; it's a litmus test for how the MMA community values experience versus potential, proven championship-level competition versus undefeated momentum, and traditional paths to title shots versus accelerated rises through the rankings.

The main event's betting odds reflect a fascinating shift in how fights are being evaluated by both the public and oddsmakers. Whether this represents shrewd analysis of Pimblett's skills or an overreaction to his marketing appeal and undefeated UFC record remains to be seen.

How to Watch

UFC 324 takes place Saturday, January 24th, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card streams exclusively on Paramount+, with preliminary cards available through official UFC broadcasting partners. Fight fans can access the event through legitimate UFC and Paramount+ subscriptions.

The Broader Implications

Beyond the immediate fight results, UFC 324 could reshape lightweight title picture conversations. A Pimblett victory would validate the betting odds and potentially fast-track one of the UFC's most marketable stars toward undisputed championship opportunities. A Gaethje victory would serve as a reminder that experience and proven championship-level competition still matter in title fights.

The card also represents a crucial moment for both fighters' careers. Pimblett faces his first true step-up in competition level, while Gaethje seeks to prove that reports of his decline have been greatly exaggerated.

As Sanko suggested, those who don't view this as a competitive fight "need to do a little bit more homework." The betting odds may favor Pimblett, but the fight itself promises to deliver the kind of compelling action that makes mixed martial arts unpredictable and exciting.

UFC 324 stands as a reminder that in MMA, anything can happen once the octagon door closes, regardless of what the odds suggest beforehand.